China’s green leap forward

Beijing

Behind the notorious clouds of filth and greenhouse gases that China’s industrial behemoth spews into the atmosphere every day, a little-noticed revolution is under way. China is going green. And as the authorities here spur manufacturers of all kinds of alternative energy equipment to make more for less, “China price” and “China speed” are poised to snatch the lion’s share of the next multitrillion-dollar global industry – energy technology.

Chinese factories already make a third of the world’s solar cells – six times more than America. Next year, China will become the largest market in the world for wind turbines – overtaking America. This fall, a Chinese firm will launch the world’s first mass-produced all-electric car of this century. And where are American utilities buying the latest generation of “clean coal” power stations? China.

“The Chinese government thinks of renewables as a major strategic industrial option” that will help fuel this country’s future growth, says Li Junfeng, deputy head of energy research at China’s top planning agency. “We will catch up with international advanced technology very quickly.”

China will likely remain the world’s worst polluter, emitting more CO2 than any other nation, for the foreseeable future. Its reliance on cheap coal to generate the bulk of its electricity makes that almost inevitable.

At the same time, however, “this country is installing a one-megawatt wind turbine every hour,” points out Dermot O’Gorman, head of the World Wide Fund for Nature in Beijing. “That is more encouraging than the one coal fired power station a week” that normally dominates foreign headlines.

Indeed, China is pushing ahead on renewable technologies with the fervor of a new space race. It wants to be in the forefront of what many believe will be the next industrial revolution. If it succeeds, it will hold far-reaching implications for the planet – affecting everything from Detroit’s competitiveness to global warming to the economic pecking order in the 21st century.

“The rest of the world doesn’t even realize that we are very likely ceding the next generation of energy technology to the Chinese,” says Todd Glass, an energy lawyer with Wilson Sonsini Goodrich and Rosati in San Francisco.

A 20-MINUTE DRIVE from the Great Wall, along the south shore of the Guanting reservoir, straw-hatted peasants tend their corn crop as the elegant blades of windmills spin idly above them in the gentle breeze, farming the wind.

Guanting’s 43 wind turbines provided some of the power for last year’s “Green Olympics” of which China was so proud, and they continue to generate not only electricity, but admiration: The wind farm is a favorite spot for newlyweds to take their wedding photos.

“They find the windmills beautiful and magnificent,” says Yin Zhiyong, the Guanting wind farm manager, as he shows a visitor around. “So do I.”

Mr. Yin trained as a coal engineer; when he was at college 20 years ago, wind-power courses were not offered. Today, he is convinced, “new energy sources are the new way of development. I’m part of the future.”

The Chinese government shares that view. The country’s installed wind power capacity has doubled each of the past four years, and is likely to exceed the 2020 target next year, a decade ahead of schedule. A revised goal, expected to be more than three times higher than the current one, will be announced soon, officials say.

Beijing has deliberately stimulated the wind sector with an array of subsidies and tariffs and a rule obliging power companies to buy renewable energy similar to a law now before the US Congress. So fast have windmills been built that the national grid cannot handle all the energy they generate, and much is wasted.

But the industry built by government policy is now looking much further afield. “Goldwind’s goal is to become a multinational and international company,” Wu Gang, the CEO of Goldwind, the firm that built Guanting’s turbines, told the “Securities Times” last month. “That is our business target.”

Already, he pointed out, Goldwind is building wind farms in Texas, and Goldwind acquired its key technology by buying 70 percent of the German company Vensys, not by developing it itself. That deal points up a key ingredient in Chinese firms’ strategies: If they don’t have time to develop technological proficiency, they will use their financial clout to get ahead.

China’s top planning agency is soon expected to announce plans to raise the proportion of renewables in the country’s energy mix to 20 per-cent by 2020, matching the European Union’s ambitious target.

Goals like this act as clear pointers for the state-owned power generating companies, where “the idea of planned industrial policy is in their blood,” as Ellen Carberry of the China Greentech Initiative puts it.

That approach is apparent in the electric-car sector, says Ms. Carberry, who represents 60 global and Chinese companies seeking to grow the green technology market here.

Two Chinese firms, BYD Auto (for Build Your Dreams) and Qingyuan are vying to bring an all-electric car to market this fall. In December, BYD started selling the world’s first mass-produced plug-in hybrid vehicle.

With the passenger vehicle sector moving forward, the government ordered 1,000 hybrid buses for Beijing and Shanghai earlier this year. It announced customer rebates of up to 40 percent off the price of new cars, depending on their energy efficiency.

Almost overnight, Beijing has focused world attention on the Chinese hybrid vehicle market. “They saw that Detroit was in a muddle, so they will leapfrog,” says Carberry.

The government has taken a different path with solar energy, refusing until recently to offer any encouragement of its use at home because solar’s price was still much higher than traditional fuels and incentives would have been very expensive. But that hasn’t stopped Chinese and foreign venture capital firms from investing in the manufacture of solar panels for export. Here, as in other fields, “China is a fast follower,” says Alex Westlake, a founder of Clearworld Now, which invests in Chinese green-tech firms.

Though solar technology is not as advanced in China as in the US, producers here have used the country’s traditional cost advantage to vault to the top of the solar sales league.

And when the government does make up its mind which technology to back, its support “will make the Chinese photovoltaic market the biggest in the world,” predicts Miao Liansheng, CEO of Yingli, one of the country’s top solar-cellmakers.

The sheer size of China’s market, and the economies of scale that size allows, are key components of the country’s advantage. “They are using their manufacturing strength and imposing cost discipline on the world,” says Mr. Glass.

NOWHERE ARE CHINA’S green ambitions more evident than in its drive towards new “clean coal” technology, which would help Beijing reduce its emissions of pollutants and CO2 while remaining reliant on its giant coal reserves. China burns coal to generate 80 percent of its electricity; the United States uses it for half its power. No matter how many sources of renewable energy those two countries tap, coal will remain their dominant fuel source for several decades.

Many energy experts are pinning their hopes on new ways of using an old technology, coal gasification. It cuts SO2 and NOx emissions and separates out CO2 so that it can be captured and then either used in industry, digested by biodiesel-producing algae, or stored permanently underground.

The US was meant to lead the way toward a near zero emissions coal-fired power plant by building one first while other countries, including China, waited for experimental data before constructing their own.

But the US Futuregen project ran into so many cost and political troubles that it was shelved. As a result, the Chinese government decided last year to move ahead with its own project. The Greengen plant, designed to be the most efficient and cleanest coal-fired power station ever built, should begin operations by the end of next year, officials here say.

In the meantime, two Chinese research centers, the East China University of Science and Technology and the Thermal Power Research Institute, have developed coal gasification techniques to challenge America’s lead in the field. Both recently licensed their inventions to American firms building power plants in the United States.

“The general thinking in the US is that we are 30 years ahead of China in technology,” says Ming Sung, a Chinese-born American who worked most of his career with Shell. “We think it’s a one-way transfer. China licensing technology to the United States is still very unusual. But it will become less and less unusual.”

He points to underground coal gasification, where solid fuel is converted to gas without even being extracted, as an example. China graduated 17 PhDs in that field last year. Only two graduated in the rest of the world.

Not that the US is a technological laggard, of course. US firms were developing advanced coal gasification technologies 30 years ago, but the Department of Energy lost interest in them when the oil embargo ended, complains Mr. Ming. “The US is very innovative, but everything comes to fruition in China,” he says.

Or, as Zhang Hongmei puts it: “In America, some people say there is no such thing as clean coal. It is very controversial. Here it’s not a question of debate or lobbying. It’s a question of doing something.”

Ms. Zhang is director for technology strategy and development at ENN, China’s largest privately owned clean-energy provider. At its spacious and exquisitely manicured campus in Langfang, 40 miles east of Beijing, executives live in villas by the fairways of the company golf course.

That is the kind of perk that has helped the company recruit many engineers abroad – both foreigners and Chinese whom ENN has tempted home. “In China as a whole, research levels are still generally low. We are at a very, very young stage compared to the US or Europe,” says Gan Zhongxue, ENN’s chief technology officer. “So we recouped many researchers from the US and Europe who are familiar with advanced technology and can then do something for ENN.”

“China cannot yet produce things with the credibility and quality behind the ‘Made in Germany’ label,” adds Jennifer Morgan, an analyst with E3G, a London-based environmental think tank. “They are not there yet.”

Still, the country has plenty of reasons to attempt to be the world’s next green-energy power. For one thing, it has few natural energy resources of its own. Plus, its pollution problems are so severe that it has little choice. The country’s outsized reliance on coal is literally a matter of life and death: 750,000 people in China die prematurely each year because of air pollution, a World Bank study in 2007 found (though the Chinese government insisted the bank cut that statistic from its final report). Only 1 percent of the population breathes air that would be considered safe in Europe.

Moreover, Beijing – just like US President Barack Obama – sees renewable energy as an economic boon. Building out a new global energy industry over the next half century will generate more business than any other sector, Chinese officials predict, and they want a hefty chunk of that business. “This gives us an opportunity to develop a new area for a new industry” says Professor Li. “It’s good for our long-term development.”

BUT THE QUESTION LOOMS: What does China’s rise as a green power mean for the rest of the world? Certainly it has its benefits. A China with more solar cells and electric cars will help reduce the amount of heat-trapping gases building up in the Earth’s atmosphere.

It could also reduce the competition for, and depletion of, dwindling natural resources – notably oil. If China rises as a green-technology manufacturing hub, it could supply the world with low-cost solar panels and wind turbines as it does now with toys and textiles.

Yet there are worries for the West, too. If green energy is the new industrial revolution, Beijing will be grabbing many of the jobs of tomorrow. That will likely hasten the day when China becomes the world’s No. 1 economic power.

“China sees [green technology] as an enormous market that is not claimed or controlled by any one nation, and there is an opportunity for them to do it,” says Carberry. “The combination of urgency; the enormous needs; a focused, systematic planned government; an army of engineers; and access to capital may define China as the platform for the green- technology industry globally.”
Mr. Westlake of Clearworld Now, echoing the 1980’s song by the American rock band Timbuk3, puts it more pithily: “The future’s so bright, you gotta wear shades.”

Climate change quickens

Dyesol Inc lining up for a wave of new energy investment

Welcome to the Dyesol newsletter. It has been some time since we published a newsletter in this form, providing something of a round up of recent activity. However as our projects and plans come to fruition, and the company grows, I believe that it is important that we maximise opportunities to tell our shareholders, the broader markets and the public about the full range of the activities, about some of the big milestones we are reaching and about some of the small steps taken.

Since the last newsletter there has been a flurry of activity – the 3rd Conference on the Industrialisation of Dye Solar Cells organised by Dyesol was held in Japan, several big announcements have been made and rapid progress has been achieved throughout all of our international joint ventures and partnerships.

In other exciting news, in recognition of the extraordinary development of DSC, its inventor Professor Michael Graetzel, our close scientific collaborator and Chairman of Dyesol's Technology Advisory Board, won the 2009 Balzan prize for work in the ‘Science of New Materials’ in Italy.


Dyesol Inc lining up for a wave of new energy investment in the USA

While the world has struggled under the heavy burden and sometimes chaotic fallout from a meltdown in US asset prices, a new energy era has quietly begun in America that created the perfect conditions required for Dyesol to formally incorporate a US subsidiary.

Barack Obama’s Presidency has been dominated by the financial crisis that he inherited, but it is the initiatives he has launched in energy that made it advantageous for Dyesol to establish a permanent presence in the USA.

With a declared target of producing at least 25% of the USA’s enormous electricity production from renewable sources by 2025, the Obama administration have already committed $60 billion to the green jobs and a clean energy economy through the ‘American Recovery and Reinvestment Act’. President Obama has further underwritten the American energy revolution with a promise of $150 billion in research and development funds for new energy technology over the next 10 years.

More than the substantial dollars however, it is the fundamental change in direction by the new President that could release the full entrepreneurial zeal and brilliance of the US economy onto the challenge of climate change, and the need to reduce fossil fuel dependency.

Marc Thomas has recently been appointed Chief Executive Officer of Dyesol’s North American subsidiary and his primary role is to develop strong business case for the future of the venture.

“This first step in entering the dynamic USA market has been carefully considered for some time,” said Sylvia Tulloch, Managing Director of Dyesol Industries. “We will be planning the resourcing and direction of our newest international subsidiary to ensure that Marc Thomas can pursue the opportunities arising from the Obama administration’s initiatives in support of the clean energy technology sector. What is beginning to happen in the USA should open significant opportunities for Dyesol.”


Dyesol investment in capacity leads the world

Commissioning of Dyesol’s materials manufacturing facilities in Queanbeyan, New South Wales, in October 2008 has proven to be timely, despite the financial crisis that has gripped the globe. Demand for DSC materials has experienced strong growth in the period since the facility was commissioned, and the production team have been committed to fill orders from companies and universities working on DSC projects.

Dyesol is one of the world’s only suppliers of the nano-chemistry, premium materials, laboratory and pilot production line systems required for DSC research and manufacturing. Since the new factory opened Dyesol has exported more than 90% of everything produced.

The solar photovoltaic market, forecast to be worth $US30 billion in 2008, is attracting many established industrial companies who want to be part of the market of renewable energy. For many corporations, DSC is seen as a potentially lower risk, and lower cost entry point into renewable energy products and Dyesol, with its portfolio of feedstocks, laboratory and pilot plant equipment, and technical consulting services, is becoming the first point of contact for many new entrants once the decision has been made to investigate third generation photovoltaics as a possible product line.

The recent receipt of an order for $AUD1 million worth of goods and services from a PETRONAS subsidiary is an example of the sort of interest that Dyesol is getting from global corporations. PETRONAS is a leading global oil and gas industry player based in Malaysia that has previously had little involvement in the solar energy sector.

The goods and services ordered from Dyesol comprise just a first step for a company of this scale, but is a step that would only have been taken once significant research and opportunity assessment had been done, including assessment of available suppliers of materials and know-how. Dyesol believes that this order is a huge endorsement of Dyesol’s capacity to support organisations with big plans for their future in renewable energy.

“The dyes and pastes that we produce in our new facilities are being used in research laboratories and the emerging DSC industry around the world,” said Dr Gavin Tulloch, Dyesol Managing Director Global. “Major corporations such as Sony are now developing DSC technology themselves, and are producing fascinating prototypes, and we are just one step away from the commercialisation of such products. The demand for DSC materials will of course grow exponentially once these products are released to the market”.

In addition to increasing its manufacturing capacity in Queanbeyan, Dyesol’s commercial partnerships are also rapidly moving towards commercialisation of DSC product that have the potential, on their own, to create very significant and long term demand for materials.

Dyesol has, over the past 12 months, established a facility in North Wales, United Kingdom to support the Dyesol/Corus collaboration. This project has been awarded a generous assistance package by the Welsh Assembly Government, to accelerate the commercialisation of DSC technology onto steel sheeting. Corus, a subsidiary of Tata Steel, is the world’s fifth largest steel producer.

Dyesol Italia srl is partnering with Italian energy company ERG Renew and with the world’s leading façade company, Permasteelisa to develop and commercialise next generation solar panels for buildings.

These activities that Dyesol is directly supporting are only the tip of the iceberg of the DSC research and commercialisation activity underway around the world and Dyesol’s state of the art manufacturing puts it in a strong position to be the leading global supplier of DSC materials, services and facilities.


Dyesol walks the walk

What would be the point of making renewable energy if the technology that made the energy was manufactured in an environmentally damaging way? The management and staff of Dyesol are serious about this question as they are collectively committed to ‘eco-logical’ action at every level of the enterprise. Dyesol regards returns to shareholders, ecology and social commitment as objectives of equal rank.

Dyesol already has a natural advantage to face the challenge of sustainability because DSC technology has the lowest embodied energy of any solar technology. Embodied energy is the total life cycle energy of a product, including costs of mining and refining of raw materials, energy of facilities and equipment, energy associated with manufacturing, energy associated with our staff and contractors and services, energy of transport, energy for marketing sales and administration, energy for product and facility maintenance, and energy for recycling of our products.

However, Dyesol takes the responsibility a step further and is driving down energy used in manufacturing with a ‘yield improvement’ programme in the manufacturing operations. This aims to ensure that higher quality, better performing materials, are manufactured at higher yields per unit of embodied energy.

In the process of designing and constructing the Company’s manufacturing facilities in Queanbeyan, New South Wales, Dyesol management investigated every cost effective measure to reduce the energy and water consumed on the premises.

As well as the expected steps of insulation and air-flow management, the air-conditioning systems use ozone friendly refrigerants, and the minimum outside air quantities required to refresh air quality and provide occupant safety. Electronic control systems provide the ability to regulate individual air conditioning systems to serve after hours operation independently.

Energy efficient T5 lighting with individual switching of local areas and time control operation of lighting has been installed, as well as time controls on under bench hot water units for point-of-use application, and pipe lagging to all supply lines, reduce heat waste in the water system.

Paper, brochures and other marketing materials are recyclable. Staff are required to utilise the paper, glass and plastics recycling bins provided.

Dyesol takes sustainability seriously, it is not just for appearances. The Company also takes its role as a new energy economy leader seriously, and intends to stay in the top ranks of the global indices that track performance of clean energy companies.

Since March 2008 the Company has been included in the Australian CleanTech Index© and Dyesol is in the top 20 out of over 60 companies in this index. In 2008 the Company was included in the “Top 100 Low Carbon Pioneers” of CNBC Europe. And in 2008 Dyesol received a Prime Rating from OEKOM Research, Munich, Germany. Dyesol is very proud about these acknowledgements of our credentials. These achievements encourages us to intensify our efforts to become more strongly ecologically beneficial, not just neutral.


Korea Enters the Organic Photovoltaic Age

The opening of the Dyesol-Timo pilot production plant in Seong Nam, South Korea on 13th July 2009, could be said to be the symbolic beginning of a new era for that extraordinarily industrious country. The opening ceremony, involving Korean officials, politicians and business people, who were joined by the Australian Ambassador to Korea, Mr Sam Gerovich, were imbued with some gravitas, and a sense that something exceptional was occurring.

In just 10 months the Dyesol-Timo JV team constructed and commissioned a world class pilot plant which has the potential to lead South Korea into the forefront of DSC commercialisation. In the course of the project planning, and the development of the facility, Dyesol scientists were also fully engaged in transferring the knowledge needed to successfully operate the facility to the Timo DSC team lead by Professor Moon.

Dr Gavin Tulloch, Managing Director Global, was there on the day to speak for Dyesol, and took the opportunity to remind the guests about the unique virtues of DSC that means that it really cannot be compared to other conventional photovoltaic technologies.

“Dye solar cell technology exists totally independent of all other types of photovoltaics – it emulates part of the photosynthesis process. It builds on millions of years of natural evolution of low energy processes – processes that utilise minimum energy to produce electrons,” Dr Tulloch said.

“Consider how a leaf functions in photosynthesis. It works in all light levels. It does not have to face directly at the sun for photosynthesis to occur. It operates in shade. It has low embodied energy and is very energy efficient. Most importantly,” Dr Tulloch pointed out, “this means that the voltage created in the leaf structure is virtually independent of light level for all orientations – and this is true for DSC also. Our challenge has been to match nature and it has been essential to understand the fine electrochemical balance and to select materials that, when combined, provide exceptional stability and hence very long lifetimes of up to 50 years.”

Having emulated photosynthesis in the lab, the next challenge for Dyesol’s scientists was to create processes that enable the basic building blocks of a dye solar cell to be mass produced. The pilot production line constructed for the Dyesol-Timo joint venture is based on a series of proprietary process, assembly and test equipment developed and commercialised by Dyesol to do just that, mass produce DSC.

The potential for DSC in the South Korean industrial economy cannot be understated. Glass-based DSC products would be very well suited to South Korea, where the solar conditions, dense urban cityscapes and rapid adoption of new technology provides an ideal environment for a number of DSC products.

South Korea is one of the fastest growing solar markets in the world and is forecast to remain so. The Korean Government has established a positive policy platform for clean technology development and recently announced plans to invest an astounding 2% of GDP worth 107 trillion won per annum (US$84.5 billion) in environment-related industries over the coming five years.

Dyesol will continue to actively support the venture, including providing access to the extensive IP holdings of the company, new innovations and developments, and supplying high performance cost competitive DSC materials and equipment.

China's massive PV stimulus 20 GW by 2020.

Chinese government has set a new target of adding 20 GW of installed photovoltaics (PV) power generating capacity in the 10 years from 2010 to 2020, which means an increase of two GW for each year, a president of a Chinese solar PV enterprise was quoted by Xinhua-run Shanghai Securities News as saying.

?The figure is bigger than the current combined installed capacity of the globe, and it?s really a big stimulus to PV enterprises, meaning huge market space of home PV industry,? said the company president who has been invited to give opinions on the pending stimulus plan for new energy industry by the National Development and Reform Commission.

He also predicted that China is likely to publish its new energy industry stimulus plan next month at the soonest.

According to him, the plan raises the target for the installed capacity of the photovoltaics industry from 1.80 million kw to 20 GW by 2020.

China now has several solar PV enterprises listed in foreign stock markets. They include SunTech Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (STP.NYSE), LDK Solar Co., Ltd. (LDK.NYSE), Trina Solar Limited (TSL.NYSE), Solarfun Power Holdings Co., Ltd. (SOLF.Nasdaq) and China Technology Development Group Corporation (CTDC.Nasdaq), Yingli Green Energy (YGE.NYSE), and JA Solar (JASO.NASDAQ).

Substantial Order Received from Global 500® Company by DYESOL

Dyesol has received an order in excess of A$1 million for the supply of DSC goods and services from a 100% subsidiary of PETRONAS, a FORTUNE Global 500® company.

A further, more detailed announcement describing the size and nature of the proposed project will be made in due course.

China Begins Its Transition to a Clean-Energy Economy

The Chinese government is putting the finishing touches to a $440bn (£272bn) incentive package designed to boost use of solar and wind power in the country.

According to various reports, new incentives for solar farms and rooftop panels are to be introduced, possibly as early as next month, while government funding will also be made available for large-scale wind farm projects.

Precise details of the new incentive schemes are yet to be released, but the investment is expected to come from China's $586bn economic stimulus package, which was announced last year to offset the impact of the global financial downturn.

The investment will be focused on increasing China's renewable energy capacity, excluding hydropower, to account for six per cent of its overall power supply by 2020. Despite rapidly emerging as a key player in the global clean tech market, currently just 1.5 per cent of China's energy comes from renewable sources.

By 2020, the government hopes to be able to generate more than 100GW of energy through wind power and have installed solar capacity of 1,800MW.

As well as cutting carbon emissions, a more diverse energy mix is also expected to enhance China's energy security. Currently, about 75 per cent of the country's power is provided by coal, which is mostly supplied by domestic mines. However, the industry's poor safety record has recently led to authorities closing several mines after a string of fatal accidents. As a result, China has been relying on imports of coal from countries such as Australia.

The planned targets and incentives for renewable energy are the latest in a series of measures from the Chinese government designed to bolster its environmental record ahead of international climate change talks in Copenhagen later this year.

A great deal of new legislation has been introduced in recent months, such as bans on plastic bags and tighter standards governing air pollution, while the government has also implemented a nationwide energy-efficiency push designed to improve energy intensity by 20 per cent.

This interesting report debunks all the tripe about China and it committment to clean energy....

A common refrain from climate action naysayers is that, “China is building two coal-fired power plants a week!” They insist that the United States should
wait until this major emitter takes on binding commitments to climate change mitigation before it decides to adopt global warming pollution reduction
policies in the American Climate and Energy Security Act (H.R. 2454). They further claim that if such a bill became law, the United States would be
transferring its jobs to countries such as China and India that are doing nothing to curb emissions. But that thinking is exactly wrong.

Critics fairly point to the fact that 80 percent of China’s power is derived from dirty coal, and that China recently surpassed the United States as the
word’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide. Yet China’s per capita emissions remain a fifth that of the United States, and its historical cumulative per
capita emissions from 1960 to 2005 are less than one-tenth that of the United States.

Still, the Chinese have recognized that it’s climate inaction—not climate legislation—that will lead to its own economic undoing. As the U.S. Congress
debates the merits of enacting renewable electricity and energy efficiency standards, China has already forged ahead with building its own low-carbon
economy, laying the foundation for clean-energy jobs and innovation.

China ranked second in the world in 2007 in terms of the absolute dollar amount invested in renewable energy, according to the Climate Group. It spent $12
billion, which put it just behind Germany’s $14 billion. These investments have placed China among the world leaders in solar, wind, electric vehicle,
rail, and grid technologies. And now approximately 9 percent of China’s $586 billion economic stimulus package will go toward sustainable development
(excluding rail and grid) projects.

China is expected to unveil in the coming weeks another extensive and unprecedented stimulus package—reported to be in the range of $440 billion to $660
billion—dedicated

solely to new energy development over the next decade, including generous investments in wind, solar, and hydropower. If those expectations are fulfilled,
China could emerge as the unquestioned global leader in clean-energy production, significantly increasing its chances to wean its energy appetite off coal,
and at the same time ushering in an era of sustainable economic growth by exporting these clean-energy technologies to the world.

The bottom line: China is not there yet, but it is beginning to transition to a clean-energy economy through a wide range of actions. The United States
should recognize China’s efforts and encourage China to expand upon them. We have sketched this claim before, but let’s run though the numbers in more
detail.

Energy efficiency

Energy efficiency is China’s primary energy priority. China just last year revised its Energy Conservation Law to declare that it “implements an energy
strategy of promoting conservation and development concurrently while giving top priority to conservation” (emphasis added). This emphasis runs through
many of China’s policies.

• China aims to reduce energy intensity—the amount of energy consumed per unit of gross domestic product—by 20 percent of 2005 levels by 2020. Each
province and provincial-level city has been assigned an energy intensity reduction target ranging between 12 percent and 30 percent, and the respective
governors or mayors are held accountable to such targets. Their success is part of the basis for their evaluation for promotion. China has made steady
progress toward reaching this goal, achieving a 10-percent reduction of energy intensity by the end of 2008. If the goal is fully realized, it will
translate to an annual reduction from a business-as-usual scenario of over 1 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year starting in 2010. By comparison, the
European Union’s targets under the Kyoto Protocol translate to an annual absolute reduction of 300 million tons of carbon dioxide by the end of its
compliance period in 2012. • The Top 1,000 Energy-Consuming Enterprises program, which China started in 2006, sets energy efficiency benchmarks for the top
1,000 energy-consuming enterprises across nine sectors of heavy industry. These 1,000 industries alone constituted 33 percent of China’s overall energy
consumption and 47 percent of industrial energy consumption in 2004, and 43 percent of China’s carbon dioxide emissions in 2006. Data suggests that the
program is on target to achieve its goal of saving 100 million tons of coal equivalent, which translates to reducing carbon dioxide emissions by between
300 million and 450 million tons. This is also the equivalent of removing 68 million to 100 million cars from the road. • China launched a rebate program
in April 2008 to subsidize the purchase of energy efficient light bulbs by 30 percent on wholesale purchases and 50 percent on retail sales. Some local
governments provide an additional subsidy of up to 40 percent. China

subsidized 62 million bulbs by the end of January 2009, which can help save 3.2 billion kilowatt hours of electricity annually and reduce carbon dioxide
discharges by 3.2 million tons. China announced plans earlier this year to double the size of the program to subsidize 100 million bulbs in 2009.

• Smaller and less efficient power plants in China are closing down as larger, more efficient power plants are built. China shut down 34 gigawatts worth of
small, inefficient plants between 2006 and 2008, and plans to close another 31 GW over the next three years. This active policy of “opening-the-large-and-
closing-the-small” increased average efficiencies from 370 grams of coal per kilowatt hour of electricity generated in 2005 to 349 grams in 2008. And new
plants such as the 1 GW ultrasupercritical coal plant in Yuhuan can generate a kilowatt hour of electricity with just 283 grams of coal. • China enacted a
new building code in 2006 that requires new buildings to halve their energy consumption levels compared to the current average. Enforcement remains a
difficult challenge, and the code does not address the vast stock of existing structures, only 4 percent of which meets the new standards. A more
successful program has been the requirement that government offices set thermostats at no lower than 26 degrees Celsius in the summer and no higher than 20
degrees Celsius in the winter, while encouraging the general public to do the same. And China has recently launched the Three Star green building
evaluation standard, a voluntary set of standards aimed at encouraging green building development with performance standards above and beyond what the
building code requires. • China is the world’s largest producer of electronic and home appliances, and it developed mandatory energy efficiency standards
and labels for a range of such products in 2005. These standards are coupled with the adoption of green procurement polices for government offices and
state-owned enterprises and will enable China to avoid 100 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions per year. • A pilot energy demand-side program—whereby
the quantity and pattern of consumption are smartly managed to match supply constraints—in Jiangsu province has eliminated the need to build 300 megawatts
of electricity capacity in the area, thus eliminating 1.84 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent. A World Bank study concludes that if properly scaled,
demand-side management can eliminate the need to build more than 100 GW of electricity capacity in China by 2020. Renewable energy

China is keenly aware of the threats that climate change poses and the need to diversify its energy base away from coal and oil. The Renewable Energy Law
of 2006 and subsequent Medium and Long-Term Renewable Energy Plan set a framework for ambitious targets to develop renewable energy sources in China.

• China has set a goal of generating 10 percent of its electricity from renewable energy sources by 2010, and 15 percent by 2020. • China just tripled is
2020 target for installed wind capacity from 20 GW to 100 GW and has recently surpassed India as the fourth-largest installer of wind power. • China’s 2020
target of building 1.8 GW of installed solar power capacity is expected to be increased at least fivefold to 10 GW. China was the world’s largest
manufacturer of solar photovoltaic panels until recently, providing roughly 40 percent of the global market share in 2008. An overwhelming majority of
those solar panels have been exported, but China’s domestic solar market is on the cusp of experiencing a boom thanks to new solar incentives announced
this year that cut the cost of purchase and installation by as much as half. • One in 10 Chinese households use solar thermal water heaters. China had
deployed 40 million solar water heaters in 2007—two-thirds of the global market share. The country plans for 30 percent of its households to have installed
solar water heaters by 2020. • China has a target for 300 GW of installed hydropower by 2020, which is twice what it has now. • China implemented a feed-in
tariff for biomass power generation at the rate of 3.2 cents per kwh. This means that China essentially provides a preferential electricity tariff to
biomass power producers of 3.2 cents per kwh over the tariff for conventional fossil fuels. It plans to install 30 GW of biomass power capacity by 2020. •
China aims to use 10 million tons of bioethanol and 2 million tons of biodiesel by 2020, replacing 10 million tons of petroleum-based fuel annually. • The
national renewable energy targets do not include nuclear energy. China currently has just over 9 GW of installed nuclear power, but is poised to ramp that
up to account for 5 percent of electricity production by 2020, translating to an installed capacity of 60 to 75 GW. • All electricity end-users (other than
the agriculture sector and residents of Tibet) have had to pay a renewable energy surcharge of 0.001 yuan per kwh since 2006. This surcharge doubled to
0.002 yuan per kwh for commercial and industrial users in August 2008. Proceeds from the surcharge have been distributed in three batches to renewable
energy projects (mostly wind and biomass)—$34.6 million in 2006, $106 million in the first through third quarter of 2007, and $295.2 million in the fourth
quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2008.

Energy grid

China, like the United States, must modernize its national grid infrastructure in order to accelerate its uptake of renewable energy. This discussion is
actively in the works now.

• China is an emerging world leader in ultra-high-voltage, or UHV transmission technology, with more than 100 domestic manufacturers and suppliers
participating in the manufacturing and supply of UHV equipment. A transmission line from Shanxi to Hubei boasts the highest capacity in the world, and is
able to transmit 1,000 kilovolts over 640 kilometers. The State Grid Corporation will invest $44 billion through 2012, and $88 billion through 2020 in
building UHV transmission lines. • China will unveil in the coming months plans to build an extensive smart grid by 2020. Auto industry

In contrast to the decline of the United State’s automotive industry, China is creating a strong and robust automotive manufacturing capacity, especially
with respect to highly efficient cars, hybrid-electric vehicles, and pure-electric vehicles.

• China has fuel economy standards that translate to 36.7 miles per gallon and is said to be considering a proposal to raise that to 42.2 mpg by 2015. The
U.S. standard was only 27.5 MPG for 20 years, although President Barack Obama announced a new standard in May of 35.5 mpg by 2016. • China last September
doubled taxes on cars with engines above four liters from 20 percent to 40 percent, and increased them from 15 percent to 20 percent for those with engines
between three and four liters. At the same time, China reduced taxes for cars with engines under one liter from 3 percent to 1 percent. • China has been
criticized until recently for fixing energy prices at artificially low rates. China is now embarking on progressive energy price reform to indirectly link
transportation fuel prices to global crude prices. It raised gasoline and diesel prices once in 2007 and once in 2008. Yet it has increased prices twice in
the first five months of this year alone. • China wants to raise its annual production capacity of hybrid, all-electric cars and buses to 500,000 by the
end of 2011. This would account for only 5 percent of total car sales, but is up from 2,100 in 2008. Thirteen cities will roll out pilot subsidy schemes
for “new energy vehicles,” ranging from $7,350 for small hybrid passenger cars to $87,700 for large, fuel-cell-powered commercial buses. The subsidies will
target public-sector purchases such as public transportation, sanitation, and postal services. The State Grid plans to deploy pilot networks of charging
stations in Beijing, Tianjin, and Shanghai, while Nissan-Renault plans to help establish a pilot charging infrastructure network in Wuhan.

• China’s emerging leadership in electric vehicles is based on its innovation in energy storage technology. The world’s first mass-produced, plug-in hybrid
is the F3DM, launched by China’s BYD Auto last December. Just six years ago this company was only in the business of making batteries for mobile phones.
The F3DM sells in China for approximately $22,000. • China has also become the world’s leader in electric bicycles, which are fitted with a small 250-watt
motor and rechargeable nickel-cadmium battery. They have a range of 60 kilometers between charges and can reach speeds of 30 kilometers/hour, which make
them ideal for intracity mobility, providing a zero-emission (during operation) alternative to a car or motorcycle. China accounts for 80 percent of global
electric bicycles sales. Public transportation

Cars will probably remain outside of economic reach for Chinese households, despite the growing automotive market. Mass transit—particularly intracity
subways and long-distance high speed rail—will remain the mobility solutions of choice.

• China is embarking on the largest railway expansion in history and plans to spend more than $1 trillion expanding its railway network from 78,000 km
today to 120,000 km in 2020. Of this, 13,000 km will be comprised of high-speed rail. The 1,300 kilometer Beijing-Shanghai line is under construction and
it will reduce travel time between those destinations from 14 hours to 5 hours when it opens in 2013. This will attract an estimated 220,000 daily
passengers and should dramatically reduce air travel between the metropolises. • China reportedly has 26,000 km of electrified railways, making it second
in the world in this arena. Encouragingly, this figure accounts for 32 percent of China’s total railways, but is responsible for 50 percent of overall
passenger and cargo volume. • China is poised to have the world’s largest network for intracity urban rail transit. About 2,100 km of railway lines will be
laid and operational by 2015 in 19 cities. Ten cities currently have 29 urban rail routes, totaling 778 km, and 14 cities are building 46 urban rail lines,
which total 1,212 km. Other initiatives

• An unprecedented wave of rural-to-urban migration is creating opportunities to experiment with new development patterns. There are over 40 different eco-
city projects currently proposed or under development throughout China.

• Low-carbon manufacturing zones, such as those in Baoding, Tianjin, and Jiangsu, are emerging as engines of growth for clean energy. • China has a target
to increase forest area coverage to 20 percent by 2010 and has committed $9 billion annually toward this effort. • A total of 1,200 counties across the
country are utilizing fertilizers according to the results of local soil tests to reduce emissions of nitrogen oxide—a less common but more potent global
warming pollutant. Conclusion

It’s true that China’s absolute emissions are rising as its economy continues to expand by 6 percent to 8 percent annually even amidst a global recession,
and that compliance with government mandates are difficult to assess given the lack of transparency in reporting or to enforce due to limited institutional
capacity. But it would clearly be incorrect to accuse China of doing nothing on climate change.

When the framework for assessing a country’s climate change mitigation efforts is narrowly confined to carbon emission caps, it glosses over a multitude of
complementary actions that provide meaningful emissions reductions compared to a business-as-usual scenario. This is why we at the Center for American
Progress have proposed “carbon cap equivalents” as a better model for assessing a country’s carbon profile rather than only looking at stipulated caps.

The carbon cap equivalents strategy calls for us to rigorously model what China’s carbon dioxide emissions reductions will add up to through a future
date—such as the 2020 benchmark midterm year used in the U.N. climate change negotiations process—relative to a base line year, such as 1990. Looking at
the full range of China’s measures in this way shows that these iterated measures will amount to significant reductions relative to a business-as-usual
scenario had China continued its emissions growth unabated. Together they will amount to a level of emissions reductions equivalent to if China had adopted
an explicit targeted emissions cap.

We must also use the same technique to reveal the actual carbon emissions reductions achievable in the midterm by the American Clean Energy and Security
Act currently making its way through Congress. A full analysis of the carbon cap equivalent of ACES compared to a model of the full range of measures being
undertaken by China will likely show that the two countries are not as far apart in terms of their aspirations for carbon reductions as is commonly
thought.

What makes the above list of actions by China all the more impressive is that the country’s leaders decided to act unilaterally even though its per capita
GDP and per capita emissions, both historical and present, remain a fraction of the United States’. China hasn’t done so out of charity, but out of
recognition that doing so is both critical to its national security and a huge opportunity for future economic prosperity.

Sure, China can do more. But we can create a much more constructive platform for forging a consensus in Copenhagen or forming the basis for a bilateral
agreement with China on climate change by acknowledging and understanding the effects of the full range of China’s climate actions outside of its lack of
hard caps on carbon emissions. A more extensive analysis should quiet the naysayers on Capitol Hill that use the false excuse of Chinese inaction to block
the passage of the historic climate and energy bill in the U.S. Congress.




http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/2009/06/pdf/climatechinav3.pdf

India ~ 2,00,000 MW of Solar capacity by 2050

A year ago India announced that solar power would be a major part of its climate action plan but between then and now, other than some project announcements, we haven't heard all that much. But now Worldwatch Institute reports that Indian newspaper The Hindu has seen a draft copy of a national solar power plan which seriously ups the ante:
According to the leaked document, India's "solar mission" will include measures for rapidly expanding the use of small-scale photovoltaic panels, solar lighting systems, and commercial-scale solar plants, in order to drive down costs and encourage domestic solar manufacturing. The efforts would occur in both rural and urban areas and target residential as well as commercial users. The plan also proposes scaling-up centralized solar thermal power generation, with the aim of achieving cost parity with conventional grid power by 2020 and the full necessary energy infrastructure by 2050.

With India's installed solar capacity currently at only 3 megawatts, this would be the most ambitious solar plan that any country has laid out so far. The scope of the initiative would also match and ultimately far exceed India's plans for nuclear power generation.


Specifically the plan aims to have 20,000 MW of solar power by 2020, expanding to 100,000 MW by 2030 and 200,000 by 2050.

Funding This All Might be the Most Ambitious Part
Which not only is "ambitious" but also going to be expensive to implement: Worldwatch cites Greenpeace's Energy [R]evolution report in saying that by 2050 India could generate 69% of its electricity and 70% of its heating and cooling needs from renewable sources, but that will require an investment of $154 billion.

In the leaked draft, government investment would amount to $18-22 million, with presumably the balance to be made up through international financing mechanisms.

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